Financial Survival Kit

What do you need to be prepared for the future financial turmoil? How can you survive?

Should I Buy Gold?

It seems like everyone is a gold bug these days, but is it the right thing for you?

What Are The Chances?

With all this "end of the world" hype going on, maybe we should consider the chances. What are the chances of a civilization threatening event?

How Much Insurance Do I Need?

Insurance is an extremely broad topic. Hopefully this generalization on the different types and amounts will help straighten things out a bit.

Iraqi Dinar: Scam or Scoop?

Some say it's an easy way to make a million bucks! But do you understand currency markets enough to take advantage?

The financial world we live in is just as wild, if not more, than the mountains and woods we walk through. We are told that the fundamentals of our economy are strong, but we can feel that something is wrong. My unique financial background and survival passion make Financial Survivalist and excellent place to learn and share.
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

OIL: The Black Gold

So China's demand for oil has plummeted, the supply from the United States has skyrocketed, and OPEC is trying to drive competitors out of the market by letting prices fall, and Russia. Don't get me started on Russia.

So that is why Oil prices have fallen, but why is the government so eager to prevent drilling? Obama gave subsidies for Brazilian companies to drill in the gulf, but won't renew drilling permits for U.S. companies? He proposes a ginormous wilderness expanse in Alaska, knowingly preventing drilling for known oil reserves?

The way I see it the two best reasons to "drill baby drill" are 1. economy. Lower oil prices fuels industry. 2. Energy independence from foreign entities. The only two reasons why I see not to drill are 1. Environment, but this can be protected with drilling. 2. Preserve resources for future generations. Let other people sell their oil. Then when they run out, we'll have a monopoly on it.

So why refuse to come to a solution for the Keystone Pipeline? Environment? NO. Obama's own investigation determined that the environmental risk was negligible. To preserve our oil? NO. It would make Canadian oil cheap to us and would be the best thing he could do to disincentivize domestic companies and preserve our oil.

Any idea? What is Obama's logic? Why would he do what he does? Any decent solution will be considered.
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Monday, September 24, 2012

The Road We Are Traveling


America is headed in a specific direction. Do you like where we are headed? Do you know what your children's lives will be like in 5, 10 or 20 years? I think we will arrive at our destination and I KNOW we will arrive sooner than expected. Don't believe me? You should study more history, because it repeats itself. When you study history it is obvious where we are headed.

Where We Are Headed:
  • Financial Crisis: We've been there, we will be there again. When we are it will be worse.
  • A Real Run on the Banks: Some European countries are already experiencing massive amounts of withdrawals. It happens when people don't have faith in their banks, gov't and or currency. Possible here? I think so, but not yet.
  • More Bailouts, More INFLATION: the Federal Reserve is already printing money at the rate of $60billion per month for an indefinite period of time.
  • New Money: There are some reports that a "new dollar" is already printing. Massive amounts of cash are being distributed. The people running the show know what is coming and are preparing.
  • Revolutionary Movements: Occupy Wall Street, Muslim Brotherhood, Anonymous, Fabian Society, George Soros, "The Coming Insurrection"... should I go on? 
  • NATIONALIZED HOUSING: This is the one that scares me, but the "housing is a right" argument has been used before to justify many things. This won't happen until total collapse and revolution.
  • Wage/Price Controls: "It's to control inflation!" This also has been used before here in the United States!
  • Work Armies: "It's your duty." In order to guarantee you will always have work you must give up your ability to choose what that work is. Thank you Marx.
  • No Taxes or Inflation or Depressions: They will make this promise and try to follow through by controlling everything. They will fail.
  • High-Tech Feudalism: Big Brother is watching already! Homeland Security Act, cameras in public areas, police radar that can see through walls, etc.
  • Education as a Tool For Human Engineering: U.S. Department of Indoctrination (Education) has been going on for years. 
  • Regionalism as a Transition to World Government: UN
  • WORLD MARXISM!!


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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

$16 Trillion in Debt!


I remember when I was freaking out over $15 trillion in Bloated Government Debt. Now we are at $16 trillion? This is insane. Just to give you some perspective of how big $16 trillion is.

1 million seconds = 11.5 days.
1 trillion seconds = 31,709 years.
16 trillion seconds = 507,344 years!

I think that says it all!

Government cuts are not a moral issue, they are a inevitable necessity. Either we make cuts and get our spending in check or we all go down the drain and we can't help anyone!

But wait! We can raise taxes! Ever heard of the Laffer Curve? Raising taxes doesn't work! However, every time the government has lowered taxes, every time, tax revenues have increased.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Economic Truths of Human Behavior

A lot of people base economic opinions on mathematical equations (2-1=1). For example, tax the rich. If we tax the rich more it will give us the money the government needs for it's budget. The problem is that economics is a social science. It envolves psychology of large groups of people and how they react to economic decisions. For example, if you tax the rich too much, they move and take their money somewhere else that doesn't tax them as much. So in this case, an increase of taxes would result in a loss of tax revenue (see Laffer Curve).

The following are Natural Laws of Human Behavior in Economics originally created by G. Edward Griffin, author of Creature From Jekyll Isle.
  1. Long-term price stability is possible only when the money supply is based upon the gold (or silver) supply without government interference.
  2. For a nation to enjoy economic prosperity and political tranquility, the monetary power of its politicians must be limited solely to the maintenance of honest weights and measures of precious metals.
  3. A nation that resorts to the use of fiat money has doomed itself to economic hardship and political disunity.
  4. Fractional money will always degenerate into fiat money. It is but fiat money in transition.
  5. When men are entrusted with the power to control the money supply, they will eventually use that power to confiscate the wealth of their neighbors.
Most of these laws are referring the monetary policy, which is one of the most prominent methods for economic interference. These laws are not all inclusive, but they are a good start. It makes the point that economic decisions cannot be made by equations and people cannot be expected to act like numerals.

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Friday, August 3, 2012

How To Eliminate the Fed

I have to admit that this is not my plan. In fact, I'm not even sure ending the Federal Reserve would be a good idea. This plan is outlined in the book "The Creature From Jekyll Island." The point is that you can't just make the fed disappear overnight, because that means our currency, literally the blood of the economy, would disappear as well. There has to be a systematic plan to break our dependence of the fed, and replace our currency with something better. Although, some of the steps are simply summarized, this is the path. This is how it could be done.

Step 1: Repeal Legal-Tender Laws: Right now the Fed note is legal tender for all debts, public and private. By repealing legal-tender laws Fed notes will still be accepted to pay your taxes, but private individuals will be free to reject or discount them as they see fit. It will also no longer be the "official" currency of the United States, freeing it up for Step 6.
Step 2: Freeze the Fed: Freeze the amount of Reserve Notes except for what is needed in Step 6 & 10.
Step 3: Restore Silver Dollar: Define the "real" dollar in terms of precious-metal content (ie silver dollar). Silver is a classic and historical success. It is by far the most successful currency of the past and hopefully the future.
Step 4: Establish Gold Back Up: Establish Gold as an auxiliary monetary reserve which can be substituted for silver when necessary; not at a fixed ratio, but whatever ratio the free market allows.
Step 5: Restore Free Coinage: Allow anyone to bring in precious metals and have the mint turn them into gold/silver coins. This allows for the market to adjust the money supply as required to avoid inflation and deflation due to money supply constraints.
Step 6: Pay Off National Debt: Pay off the national debt with Fed notes. Yes, this will cause Fed notes to inflate, but the deed has already been done. Congress decided long ago that we would use Fed notes to pay off the national debt. It's the only thing we have available to do so, but by doing Steps 1-5 we can free the economy from some of the consequences so it can live to thrive another day.
Step 7: Pledge the Fed's PM Reserves: The Federal Reserve claims to have a horde of gold. That gold should belong to the citizens and needs to be used to back currency like it was originally intended.
Step 8: Determine Real Value of Fed Notes: Determine the weight of the Fed's Gold and Silver reserves. Determine the number of Fed Notes in circulation. By knowing the number of notes and the amount of reserves, determine the actually value of Fed notes in real silver dollars.
Step 9: Retire Fed Notes: Now we know what they are worth, offer silver and gold reserves in exchange for Fed Notes. This will retire the Fed notes from circulation and add Silver Dollars into circulation in equal numbers.
Step 10: Issue Silver Certificates: When retiring Fed Notes, give the option to take the coinage or notes that are 100% backed by silver. Silver certificates will become the new paper currency.
Step 11: Abolish the Fed: We have basically eliminated all that the Fed did and therefore all reason to have the Fed. It's time to abolish the Fed.
Step 12: Re-Itroduce Free Banking: NO MORE BAILOUTS! Cut them loose from all protection at tax-payer expense. Replace FDIC with private insurance. Require banks to keep 100% reserves for all demand deposits.
Step 13: Reduce the Size of Gov't: The scope of government should be limited to the protection of life, liberty and property. NOTHING MORE! When the government tries to do too much, it does nothing well. It becomes a strain on the people and the economy. The Fed is our 3rd national bank. BIG GOVERNMENT = NEW FED. There is no point in eliminated the Fed without decreasing the size and scope of the government's power. Otherwise, we will just get a "new" Fed in a few years.
Step 14: Restore National Independence: Big Government and Tyranny is a threat on the domestic and international level. The only way to protect ourselves from global tyranny is by limiting our interdependance with foreign governments.


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Saturday, July 28, 2012

Don't Audit The Fed!!!

Anyone that thinks the world's important financial markets still believe that the Fed is using any kind of sane reserve ratio is mistaken!

The world knows the Fed is broke. They know that the game is a farse! So why do they still play it? Because it's the only game that is played! It's been played for 100's of years and if you know how to play it you can make lots of money!

The only thing auditing the Fed will do is WASTE TIME. The audit would be held up and lost in endless government bureaucracy. It would be an excuse for politicians say they are doing something. Years later we would find out what we already know and nothing would change, because no one cares and no one would be surprised.

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Friday, December 16, 2011

My Prediction: How This Mess Will Unfold

The EU Will Go First.

This is not because the EU is worse then us. Although they are, they still have a lot of options to delay the inevitable. Financial collapse always takes longer than you think and happens faster than you can imagine. The main reason why the EU will go before the US is because of the flight to "security" ie the US dollar.

If encountering an angry bear in the wilderness, you don't have to run faster than the bear. As long as you can run faster than your friend, the bear will catch your friend first and you will be safe. In fact Brian Matayoshi died because his wife ran faster than him. OK, in a real bear attack situation, there are a lot of variables, but that's beside the point.

Just like the the bear in the woods, if the US runs faster than the EU (ie the EU is worse) then the EU investors will run to the "security" of the US dollar when the EU crashes. This will drive up the price of the dollar, and drive down the US dollar prices of commodities. That means the price gold and other metals will crash.

China

The real estate bubble in China makes our real estate bubble look like nothing. Honestly, people were buying homes, never to occupy or rent, only to hold because real estate "never" goes down. Google "Chinese Ghost Towns." Entire towns that are empty, just because of the "bubble." The bubble is breaking! If the Chinese bubble breaks it will further the flight to the U.S. dollar.

Unites States

All this flight to security will be great for the US dollar. Unfortunately loosing our largest importer (EU) and our largest exporter (China) will destroy our economy. That combined with a stronger dollar will crash the U.S. economy and stock market. We will also see unprecedented volatility.

Right now there are two things propping up the US economy. One is printing money and the other is the government spending money. Neither can continue much longer. Eventually the Fed will no longer be able to finance our government debt. Inflation will prevent it. Without the ability to borrow, our government will have to end it's spending spree.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Fed nor the US government will cease these self destructive policies any time soon. The Fed has to print money to maintaing government spending. Government gets bigger, not smaller, and will continue to do so.

Eventually inflation will force the reality of the situation to come forth. The world will realize the the United States cannot outrun it's fate, and that it will follow suit with all the other major world economies. Eventually investors, like they have done with the EU, will demand higher return for their risk of U.S. securities. The U.S. will fail to be able to fund their debt and will have to print money or restructure their debt.

Disclaimer: there are a lot of variables in the world economy. Many things can change our course, but our course is obvious. History dictates the consequences of certain actions and policies. It gives me an idea of the future, but predicting the future is impossible.

Next week you can read about what we can do to fix this problem and survive as a nation. Until then, be smart and thrive.

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Saturday, October 22, 2011

Money Supply and Inflation

If you haven't been watching the "right" news stations, you may have missed the seemingly endless advertisements for gold stating several reasons to purchase, one of which is coming inflation. But is there really going to be inflation? Will it be stagflation? Is there any way to know?


This is a chart of the monetary base for the history of the Federal reserve. This includes all cash in circulation and deposits in banks. As you can see it took the fed almost 60 years to have any significant increase in the monetary base. The largest reason for this is because until the 70's we were on the gold standard. That means the US currency was backed by or represented a portion of gold. Physical, tangible, real gold. Then, without authority of congress, President Nixon severed the dollar's relationship with gold.

By severing the dollar's relationship with gold, the dollar became a fiat currency and was now back by debt (ie the promise of the U.S. to pay it's debt). By doing this it allowed the federal reserve to print as much money as it needed/wanted, and allowed the U.S. government to take on more debt. If you compare the chart of the monetary base to the chart of U.S. debt, you will notice they are strikingly similar.

Probably the most noticeable part of the monetary base is that in late 2009 it skyrockets. It more than triples from about $800 billion to over $2.7 trillion in a few short years. What does this mean? Well, the easy answer is inflation. Inflation is the eroding of the purchasing power of your dollar. That is, the more inflation the less you can buy with a dollar. An increase of the monetary base of this magnitude has never been known by the U.S. financial system. Smaller increases have caused runaway inflation before, but nothing like this. The closest thing we can compare this too is the Weimar Republic.

The Weimar Republic was created in 1918 to replace the post WWI German government. However, as part of Germany's punishment for WWI many countries of the world decided that Germany owed them for damages. The Weimar Republic started deeply in debt. In order to free itself from this debt the government decided to print the money. This policy quickly caused hyperinflation ending the Weimar Republic's currency.

So, if the kind of printing we are seeing by the Federal Reserve today is similar to the kind of printing experienced by the Weimar Republic, why are we not experiencing hyper inflation? There are three main reasons for this. The first is that the Weimar Republic increased their monetary base by more than 1000 times. The U.S. has irresposibly printed money, but not yet to the degree of the Weirmar Republic. However, the inflation problem of the Weimar Republic started slowly as well. It happend over the period of several years. Even today the Fed is talking about a third round of printing money. We have only just begun.

Second, the great economies of the world are working together to inflate their money. The U.S., Japan, the E.U., China and many more nations have all agreed to a policy of printing money. They do this so the trade between our contries is not affected so drasticly by inflation.

Third, inflation is not caused by money supply alone. It is also caused by how fast the money moves through the economy (ie velocity of money). People are scared. They know something is wrong, and the kind of spending that happened before 2008 is just not happening. However, mark my words, as money begins being used again we will experience severe inflation. As inflation starts to take hold the speed of money will increase exponentially. Just how bad will it be? Based soley on the money supply, in less than a few years your dollar could easily be worth 1/3 it's current value. Depending on how fast money starts moving through the economy, it could easily be worth even less.

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